I like the analogy to iron ore you make here and it will be useful when analyzing the space moving forward.
However, I always tend to struggle with the demand side of the this. If we use your analogy, Chinese urbanization and infrastructure trends were the point source of demand for all of that iron ore.
Where did the capital for that boom come from? - honest question, please answer... I think it came from an enormous credit bubble- supplied, managed, and expedited by the Chinese government, Princes of the Yen style.
For this "EV boom," the capital is apparently coming from the auto consumer? I just don't see the same type of fast and furious frenzy of consumption and availability of capital for this boom to look anything like we saw in 2002-2009 China. I can't get over the feeling those hockey sticks are just flat out wrong.
The product isn't an iPhone-like upgrade over the incumbent. This isn't going from sails to steam. No matter how much governments and the Davos crowd want us to want EV's, a lot of use don't really give af. And EV's are expensive af. Unless central banks are about to fuel another credit bubble of epic proportions IN ORDER FOR everyone to buy these things.. those hockey sticks cannot be good forecasts of the future.
I like the analogy to iron ore you make here and it will be useful when analyzing the space moving forward.
However, I always tend to struggle with the demand side of the this. If we use your analogy, Chinese urbanization and infrastructure trends were the point source of demand for all of that iron ore.
Where did the capital for that boom come from? - honest question, please answer... I think it came from an enormous credit bubble- supplied, managed, and expedited by the Chinese government, Princes of the Yen style.
For this "EV boom," the capital is apparently coming from the auto consumer? I just don't see the same type of fast and furious frenzy of consumption and availability of capital for this boom to look anything like we saw in 2002-2009 China. I can't get over the feeling those hockey sticks are just flat out wrong.
The product isn't an iPhone-like upgrade over the incumbent. This isn't going from sails to steam. No matter how much governments and the Davos crowd want us to want EV's, a lot of use don't really give af. And EV's are expensive af. Unless central banks are about to fuel another credit bubble of epic proportions IN ORDER FOR everyone to buy these things.. those hockey sticks cannot be good forecasts of the future.
Outside of lithium miners, what's your take on the equipment industry supplying this growth?
Is lithium growth big enough to move the needle compared to current demand for the iron ores of the world, or not?
Reading this in Jan ‘24 after the lithium bust is very interesting. Thanks for writing this!